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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.